THE DEATH OF THE MARKETING GURU
Making Invisible Worlds Visible.
The year is 1920. You fall off your horse and break your leg. Bad luck, it is a real nasty fracture. The good news is, there are two doctors who can help. Doctor A is very experienced and skilled, a truly great professional. Doctor B is equally skilled, but on top of that his cabinet is equipped with something new called x-rays. Doctor A can make surface level observations but has to assume what goes on under the skin. Doctor B makes the same surface level observations, and uses a combi of science and technology -the x-ray machine- to look under the surface, so that he can replace the assumptions with valid data. Which doctor do you choose?
If you are wondering how this little story relates to marketing gurus, just replace the word ‘doctor’ with ‘marketeer’, and ‘x-ray’ with ‘decision science’. The essence of marketing is to influence decisions. For centuries bright minds have tried to understand how we make decisions and what makes any given decision sound or unsound. It is only recent that science has clearly proven that decisions are the outcome of sub-conscious or implicit brain processes. Simply put, the real decision centre is buried deep under the surface. You can not fully understand or influence decisions if you only work at surface level. Decision science is term used for new approaches that help to make that invisible world of decision making visible, to replace the assumptions with facts and data.
The Cult of Creativity
Marketing gurus are the top dogs in the world of ad agencies. A world built on a cult of creativity, not on scientific rigor. An industry in which the awards that honour creative work vastly outnumber those that celebrate campaign impact. Clients are enchanted by hazy pledges of customer engagement, of relevance and resonance. This universe of vague promises is the canvas on which the marketing gurus perform their art. And the cool thing is, the descendants of Don Draper got away with it -until now. Until scientific progress caught up.
As it became clear that the industry of persuasion knows very little about the brain processes that control what people like and choose, it became clear that the gurus were basically assuming, guessing, gambling. “Where is your evidence to support that what you say and how you are saying it, has the highest potential to influence preferences and decisions? ” — is a question that was seldom asked and never answered. All of that is rapidly changing now.
Lemonade and Monkeys
Nature recently (2 Nov 2020) published a study by the Washington University School of Medicine that demonstrates that manipulation of specific neurons -using microdoses of electric current- can alter the decision making process. Not randomly but in a predictable manner. The experiments were conducted on monkeys and influenced their preferences for different sorts of lemonades and fruit juices. According to Camillo Padoa-Schioppa, PhD, senior author and professor of neuroscience, of economics and of biomedical engineering at Washington University- when it comes to this kind of choices, the monkey brain and the human brain appear very similar. Padoa-Schioppa thinks that this same neural circuit underlies all sorts of choices people make, such as between different dishes on a restaurant menu, financial investments, or candidates in an election. Even major life decisions like which career to choose or whom to marry probably utilise this circuit.
Let it sink in for a second. Think what this could mean for the future of marketing and commerce. To plant an idea directly in the implicit mind of the consumer, to directly influence the real decision center… This opens unseen possibilities. Will world class brands still invest billions in the relatively uncertain outcomes of traditional marketing initiatives? Or will there be organisations who prefer to finance the development of neuro-science based methods to influence and manipulate purchase decisions in a completely novel manner?
Magic is for Fairytales
For the gurus, the gut feelings, the assumptions, the educated guesses, are the magic of marketing and advertising. But magic is for fairytales, not for the cut-throat arena of a globalised economy. It might have worked in a bygone era of toasted Lucky Strikes and M&M’s that melt in you mouth- not in your hand, but it no longer works today.
Just as it has become unacceptable for doctors to guess what’s wrong with your broken leg instead of taking an x-ray. It will soon become unacceptable to assume how to influence consumers, instead of deploying scientific methods.
The marketing guru is dead. Long live the decision scientist!
